| A successful Texas hold em player is one who | | | | call...you should raise! As we've seen in the |
| maximizes his return or minimizes his loss | | | | Poker Odds section, you have about a 35 |
| with each decision he makes. Expected value | | | | percent chance of hitting your flush. You |
| (EV) is essentially the amount one would | | | | will not win each time you hit it...perhaps |
| expect to win or lose if this decision were | | | | someone has flopped a set or two pair and |
| to be repeated millions of times. (rememer | | | | will hit a full house, etc. You may even |
| your precalculus "limit as n goes to | | | | occasionally win if you spike an Ace. Anyway, |
| infinity"??? didn't think so!) | | | | it is pretty clear that your odds of winning |
| | | | the hand are better than 25 percent, and with |
| Every poker decision, whether it be to bet, | | | | 3 players in the pot ahead of you, you want |
| raise, check/call, check/fold, check/raise | | | | to get more money in the pot while you have |
| has an expectation of success or failure. | | | | an advantage from an expected value |
| Those that will lose you money in the long | | | | standpoint. Now, there are other factors that |
| run are said to have negative expected value | | | | will enter your head and should be taken into |
| (-EV). Folding always has an expected value | | | | account. If the original bettor reraises you |
| of zero. You will never gain or lose money by | | | | and the other two fold, you've now put 2 |
| folding. Folding, though it has an EV of | | | | dollars in and gotten the others to put 6 in. |
| zero, may often be your best decision from an | | | | Now we may or may not be in positive EV |
| EV perspective. | | | | territory, depending on what our opponent |
| | | | has. Also, we must consider the fact that our |
| Let's look at a few examples. Expected value | | | | raise may have bought us a free card or may |
| is not always easily calculable, even in | | | | have gotten someone with an Ace and a better |
| limit texas holdem, but every time you play | | | | kicker or paired side card to fold. As you |
| you should try to analyze your decisionmaking | | | | can see, there are many factors influencing |
| with EV in your mind. For instance, you're | | | | the expected value of our decisions. We may |
| playing 1/2 and in the small blind with 84o | | | | not always be sure we've made the correct |
| on a flop of K96 rainbow. The small blind | | | | poker play, but it's extremely important that |
| checks and only you and a tight player are | | | | our thinking process runs along these lines. |
| left. There is three dollars in the pot. | | | | |
| Should you bet? You are risking one dollar. | | | | Even preflop you must think along expected |
| Betting has a positive expectation if you can | | | | value lines. You may be holding AJs in the |
| expect the other two to fold more than one in | | | | small blind. Six players, most of them very |
| four times. If you try it four times and it | | | | loose, limp before you. A raise is in order. |
| succeeds once, you win a three dollar pot and | | | | Think in terms of expected value or pot |
| lose your one dollar bet the three other | | | | equity. Your hand figures to win more than |
| times, making it a 0 EV play. (We're | | | | one in every seven times against the starting |
| discounting the chance that you are called | | | | hands held by the others, so a raise is in |
| and catch runner runner or win in some other | | | | order. Again, evaluate each decision on its |
| very unlikely way) Remember, we analyze each | | | | own merits. If you miss the flop in this |
| decision on its own Expected Value merits. If | | | | instance, checking and folding may be your |
| you are called and catch an 8 on the turn, | | | | best option from an expectation standpoint. |
| you must again analyze your decisions based | | | | Or, it may not...you may have an overcard, |
| on their likelihood of success or failure in | | | | gutshot and back door flush draw...again, do |
| the long run. Poker, and Texas Holdem in | | | | the math in your head and arrive at the |
| particular, is a game of short term | | | | correct decision. |
| variations, but you must continue to make the | | | | |
| correct EV decisions and you will be a winner | | | | Finally, remember this...in general, a bet |
| in the long term. | | | | has a higher expectation than a check/call. |
| | | | You will sometimes win by forcing people to |
| Another example: You are holding A8 of | | | | fold. Now, there are times when this is not |
| spades, again playing 1/2. There are 3 | | | | correct due to the threat of a raise (if |
| limpers ahead of you and one behind you. The | | | | you're planning on calling), but always bear |
| flop comes K96 with two spades. The first | | | | it in mind. In Texas Holdem, aggressive poker |
| player bets and the other two in front of you | | | | is winning poker. |